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La Niña could persist this hurricane season

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Hurricane season is almost upon us once again and forecasts for the amount of activity we could see in the 2022 season are pouring in.

Another suite of models was just released on whether La Niña will stick around or fade away. Back in January, most forecast models suggested La Niña would fade away heading into hurricane season. While El Niño wasn’t forecast to develop, models suggested a neutral pattern would develop.

The latest forecast models just released for April have changed a bit now suggesting La Niña will persist through the peak of hurricane season. A La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean creates a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.

To determine which phase this atmospheric pattern is in, meteorologists look at the water temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Currently those anomalies are running about 1 degree Celsius below average. When looking at history, there have been seven years in the past with similar anomalies in April. Each of those years then had either a neutral phase or La Niña phase during the peak of hurricane season.

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